General Election 2011

So today, there is a general election in Ireland to elect TD's (Member of Parliament) to the Dail Eirann.  The previous session of the Dail was dissolved at the end of January, and the entire election campaign has only lasted a few weeks, culminating in today's election.  It has been quite interesting to follow the campaign and contrast it with my experiences with campaigning and elections back at home. 

The Irish use a system of voting called the Alternative Vote, and the only other country that uses this is Malta.  Each district elects either 3, 4, or 5 TD's, depending on the population of the district.  Each citizen votes by ranking their candidates by preference.  Once a candidate reaches the predetermined quota of first-preference votes for a seat, all the rest of their votes are transferred to the other candidates, based on how they were ranked by the voters.  It is an interesting system that provides for many opportunities for voters to act strategically, but parties must as well.  If a party does not believe they have enough votes to get two quotas in a district, they might only run one candidate to ensure that they get the one seat.

The largest party in the previous Dail was Fianna Fail, a centrist party who have basically been in power in Ireland for the past 70 years.  Now, they will be lucky to be the third largest party in the next Dail.  They popularity has tanked, and many voters blame them for turning the surpluses from the Celtic Tiger years into deficits, for raising taxes, and allowing reckless lending by banks, which led to a government bailout and then an IMF/EU bailout of the Ireland (Sounds eerily familiar, doesn't it?).  The main opposition parties are Fine Gael (a center-right party) and Labour (center-left).  Other parties include the Green Party, which will be lucky to have any representation in the next Dail after being part of the ruling coalition with Fianna Fail the past few years, and Sinn Fein.  There are also several independent candidates running, as well as a few far left/socialist candidates running under the label "United Left Alliance."

My prediction for the election is as follows:
Fine Gael- 79 Seats
Labour- 40 Seats
Fianna Fail-25 Seats
Sinn Feinn- 11 Seats
Greens- 1 Seats
Independents/Others- 10 Seats

Fine Gael will form a coalition with some of the more centrist/center-right independents and Enda Kenny will be the next Taoiseach (prime minister).

We will know soon how close (or how far off base) I am in my predictions.  During the past few weeks, a couple thousand signs appeared all around Dublin, which has really been most of my contact with the election (not having a TV, I was spared any campaign commercials).  In addition, Fine Gael, in what I suppose is an attempt to connect with younger voters, created a video game where you actually shoot political opponents with the logo of the Fine Gael party.  The first time I saw the game, I thought it was a joke, but it is very real, and annoyingly difficult to beat (http://www.finegael2011.com/game/).  Here are some of the pictures of campaign posters: